WEPR Forum, or armor games forum in general seems like a ghost town. Regardless I'm happy to restart a conversation here.
The war appears to have stalled as of 3/12. I believed the timeline for the Russians to have Kiev was around 2 weeks. We've surpassed that date. There's obvious issues they're trying to correct, but I have some theories. My stance currently is that Ukraine cannot sustain itself, and sanctions will not deter the Russians before victory.
If we take a look at Russia's past conflicts (Georgia, Middle East, etc) they always seem to underperform. They seem to value sending conscripts and older equipment to soften defenses and secure supply lines before sending in newer tech and veteran soldiers. My belief is that we'll see faster progress in the upcoming weeks. I don't believe Ukraine can withstand the constant shelling and pressure on key targets. I also don't believe NATO has an appetite to get involved beyond economic pressure. I don't believe Ukraine will ever join the EU or NATO as the government is far too corrupt and Ukraine has always been seen as a liability.
My prediction is Russia wins the conflict, and the West eventually accepts this and removes sanctions as they did with Crimea. The general populace (US/EU) does not appear to have an appetite for foreign conflict. I welcome further discussion on this topic.